‘Muskonomy’ Shakeup: SpaceX Valuation Approaches Tesla’s After Merger with xAI

In a seismic shift for Elon Musk’s empire, SpaceX’s valuation has surged to $1.25 trillion following its merger with xAI, now trailing Tesla’s $1.58 trillion market cap by just 26%.[2] This “Muskonomy” realignment underscores SpaceX’s rocket-fueled ascent amid Tesla’s EV sales slump, positioning the space giant as a wealth magnet in Musk’s portfolio.[1][2][3]

The Merger That Redefined Musk’s Universe

Elon Musk’s bold fusion of SpaceX and xAI marks a strategic masterstroke, blending reusable rocketry with cutting-edge AI to supercharge ambitions like Mars colonization and autonomous satellite networks.[2] Announced recently, the deal catapults SpaceX’s private valuation from $800 billion—already more than half of Tesla’s $1.43 trillion at the time—to $1.25 trillion post-merger.[1][2][3] xAI’s AI prowess, despite facing investigations in multiple countries, injects neural firepower into Starlink’s constellation and Falcon launches, potentially mitigating legal risks through diversified ops ahead of a 2026 IPO.[2]

This isn’t mere consolidation; it’s a valuation turbo-boost. Secondary share sales doubled SpaceX’s worth from $400 billion, with growth exploding 22-fold since 2020’s $36 billion mark.[1][3] Starlink alone drove $8.2 billion of 2024’s $13.1 billion revenue, while 2025 projections hit $155 billion—still dwarfed by Tesla’s $952 billion forecast, yet commanding a “Musk premium” on hype alone.[1][3]

Tesla’s Turbulence: From EV King to Robot Pivot

Contrast this with Tesla’s woes. EV sales plunged 9% to 1.63 million units in 2025, with Q4 2026 deliveries cratering 16% year-over-year and revenue dipping 3%—the first annual decline.[2] Competition bites hard: China’s BYD surged 228% in Europe as Tesla’s sales tanked 37%.[2] Legacy automakers pile on, eroding Tesla’s 73% EV revenue reliance.[2]

Musk’s response? Halt Model S and X production, redirecting to Optimus humanoid robots, autonomous systems, and a $20 billion+ 2026 capex blitz—doubling 2025 spends with zero free cash flow eyed through 2027.[2] Analysts split: JPMorgan slashed targets to $145 (Underweight), citing deteriorated earnings; Canaccord held Buy at $520, praising the robotics pivot.[2] Yet investor polls scream preference: 68.3% favor SpaceX over Tesla at equal valuations, with Starlink topping hypotheticals.[2][4]

Tesla’s $1.58 trillion cap now feels vulnerable, as Musk’s 42% SpaceX stake (vs. 15% Tesla, potentially rising to 29%) anchors his $496.1 billion net worth.[1][3] A 2026 SpaceX IPO—valued $800 billion to $1.5 trillion, possibly spinning Starlink—could prioritize Tesla loyalists, but shareholder jitters loom.[2][4][6]

SpaceX’s Stellar Momentum

SpaceX dominates: 90% of global payloads in 2024, with bankers prepped for IPO glory.[1][3] Valuation multiples defy gravity—sixth Tesla’s revenue, yet half (or more) the worth—fueled by Starlink’s subscriber boom and reusable tech slashing costs.[1][3] OpenAI? Eclipsed at $500 billion.[3] Polls predict $1.5 trillion public debut, matching Tesla today.[2][4][6]

Implications for the Muskonomy

This shakeup ripples across markets. SpaceX’s IPO could flood demand, lifting related stocks while Tesla reallocates to AI-robotics survival.[2][4] Musk’s wealth skews spaceward, pressuring Tesla bulls amid legal xAI scrutiny.[2] For investors, it’s a referendum: bet on proven launches or unproven bots?

The merger cements SpaceX as Musk’s crown jewel, challenging Tesla’s throne in a portfolio worth trillions. As 2026 IPO whispers grow, the Muskonomy evolves—space over streets, AI over axles. Watch deliveries, launches, and polls; the stars align for SpaceX.[1][2][3]

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Original source: CNBC Business – ‘Muskonomy’ shakeup: SpaceX valuation approaches Tesla’s after merger with xAI