1. Russia Declares Itself ‘No Longer Bound’ by New START Nuclear Arms Limits

Russia announced on February 4, 2026, that it is no longer adhering to limits on deployed nuclear warheads under the New START treaty, which expired on February 5, effectively ending the last major U.S.-Russia arms control agreement for the first time in over 50 years.[1] President Vladimir Putin had previously offered to extend compliance unilaterally for a year, but received no U.S. response, amid warnings from campaigners of a potential new arms race involving the U.S., Russia, and possibly China.[1]
Context: New START capped each side at 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and 700 delivery vehicles; its collapse removes verifiable inspections and limits, heightening tensions in an already volatile geopolitical landscape.[1]
Implications: This could accelerate global nuclear proliferation, strain U.S.-Russia relations further, and prompt allied responses, including from NATO, while influencing ongoing U.S. diplomacy with Iran on its nuclear program ahead of Oman talks.[1][2][4]

2. U.S., EU, and Japan Launch Critical Minerals Partnership to Counter China

The U.S., European Union, and Japan unveiled a trilateral partnership on February 4, 2026, in Washington to secure critical minerals supply chains, targeting China’s dominance through coordinated trade policies like border-adjusted price floors.[1] These minerals, including rare earths, are essential for technologies such as smartphones, electric vehicles, fighter jets, and renewable energy systems.[1]
Context: China’s control over 80-90% of rare earth processing has exposed vulnerabilities in Western tech and defense sectors, exacerbated by trade tensions and EV battery demands.[1]
Implications: The initiative could diversify supply chains, reduce economic leverage held by China, bolster innovation in clean energy and defense, and stabilize prices for businesses reliant on these materials, though implementation faces logistical and diplomatic hurdles.[1]

3. France Arrests Four Suspected of Spying for China on Military Satellite Data

French authorities arrested four individuals, including two Chinese nationals, on January 31, 2026 (announced February 4), for allegedly using an Airbnb in southwestern France to intercept sensitive military data via satellites like Starlink and transmit it to Beijing.[1] The suspects targeted “entities of vital importance,” including military intelligence.[1]
Context: This fits a pattern of espionage concerns in Europe, amid China’s growing space capabilities and reliance on commercial satellite networks for dual-use tech.[1]
Implications: Heightens EU-China geopolitical frictions, may spur tighter regulations on satellite tech and foreign rentals near strategic sites, and signals rising cyber-espionage risks to critical infrastructure, affecting NATO allies’ defense innovation and business operations in aerospace.[1]