Labour Deputy Leader Admits Burnham Would Have Won Gorton and Denton By-Election

The aftermath of Labour’s historic defeat in the Gorton and Denton by-election has brought a striking admission from party leadership: Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, would probably have won the seat that the party lost to the Green Party on February 26, 2026. This candid assessment from Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell underscores the growing consensus that blocking Burnham’s candidacy was a strategic miscalculation of significant proportions.

The Controversial Decision

The controversy began when Burnham, the incumbent Greater Manchester mayor, applied to stand as Labour’s candidate in the by-election triggered by former MP Andrew Gwynne’s resignation on health grounds.[6] The National Executive Committee (NEC) voted 8–1 against his candidacy on January 25, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and most senior party figures voting to block him.[6] Lucy Powell was the sole NEC member to vote in his favour.[1]

The decision sparked immediate backlash. Fifty Labour MPs and half a dozen Labour peers signed a letter objecting to the NEC’s move, while 53% of Labour party members disagreed with the ruling.[6] Labour figures cited concerns that Burnham’s candidacy would trigger an expensive and politically risky mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester, but critics argued this reasoning prioritised internal party management over electoral viability.

The Defeat and Its Implications

The by-election result vindicated those concerns. Green candidate Hannah Spencer won with 14,908 votes, securing a majority of over 4,000 votes.[7] Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia placed a humiliating third with 9,364 votes, while Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin came second with 10,578 votes.[7] This marked the first time Labour had come third in a by-election it was defending since Mitcham and Morden in 1982.[7]

The contrast with the 2024 general election was stark. Labour had won Gorton and Denton with a majority exceeding 13,000 votes just eighteen months earlier.[7] The swing was dramatic enough to prompt immediate questions about whether blocking Burnham had cost the party the seat.

Powell’s Candid Assessment

Speaking to the BBC’s Newscast podcast following the defeat, Powell provided the most direct acknowledgement yet of the decision’s consequences. She stated that Burnham would “probably” have held the seat, adding that “the Greens wouldn’t have gone after the seat in the same way that they did.”[1]

Powell’s comments are particularly significant because she had voted against the NEC’s decision in the first place. However, she told the BBC she accepted “collective responsibility” for the outcome, citing the concerns about a mayoral by-election.[1] Her willingness to speak openly about what might have been suggests growing pressure within Labour to reassess the decision and its aftermath.

The Burnham Factor

Burnham’s popularity in Greater Manchester proved decisive in the analysis of what went wrong. Powell acknowledged this directly, saying people “see in him someone who is on their side, someone who is delivering those Labour values and those Labour policies.”[1] This assessment aligns with comments from Hannah Spencer herself, the Green victor. Spencer acknowledged Burnham’s local popularity, stating that if he had been the candidate, she would have faced a “harder fight.”[6]

The media had framed the by-election as a potential route for Burnham to return to Westminster and possibly challenge Starmer for the Labour leadership.[6] This prospect appeared to have influenced the NEC’s decision, with party figures reportedly concerned about the political risks of Burnham’s elevation. Yet by blocking him, Labour may have inadvertently demonstrated exactly why he remains such a potent political force in the region.

Broader Implications for Labour

Powell’s comments suggest the party leadership recognises the need to learn from the defeat. She told the BBC that drawing inspiration from Burnham’s approach was essential, saying: “We have to draw on that, make use of Andy Burnham, but also draw on that and reflect on how we could do that better nationally and better as a Government.”[1]

The defeat has sparked criticism from across Labour’s ideological spectrum. Campaign groups like Momentum, Mainstream, and Compass all pointed to the Burnham decision as avoidable and catastrophic.[7] Andy McDonald, a former shadow cabinet minister, warned against complacency, stating that “factionalism fails the party and more importantly fails the country.”[8]

Looking Forward

Starmer has vowed to fight on despite the “disappointing” outcome,[1] but the Gorton and Denton result raises serious questions about Labour’s electoral prospects in the local and devolved elections scheduled for May 2026. Some Labour backbenchers were reportedly despondent about campaigning in other constituencies, expecting large defeats amid concerns over Starmer’s leadership.[6]

The admission from Powell that Burnham would probably have won represents more than just a post-election autopsy. It reflects the growing recognition within Labour that the decision to block him was driven by internal party management rather than electoral strategy—and that this miscalculation may have consequences extending far beyond a single by-election. As Labour prepares for crucial elections ahead, the Gorton and Denton result and Powell’s candid assessment serve as a cautionary tale about the costs of prioritising party control over political effectiveness.

Original source: BBC News – Burnham would probably have won by-election, Labour deputy leader says